Análisis cíclico

El estudio del tiempo en los mercados — ciclos, recurrencia, armónicos y estructura rítmica del precio.

En esta página

El estudio del tiempo en los mercados.

Cyclic analysis is not “the Hurst page”. Hurst is a central reference, but the discipline is broader: market cycles, seasonality, waves, harmonics, time windows, dominant cycles, FLD, multi-timeframe synchronisation.


Para qué sirve

Cyclic analysis studies market behaviour through the temporal recurrence of price moves. It observes when oscillations tend to be born, expand, mature and close — not only where price goes.

What it observes What it measures When it's useful
Time repetition Period, phase, amplitude Entry/exit timing
Overlapping cycles Harmonics, sub-cycles Multi-timeframe context
Rhythmic structure Cyclic lows/highs, FLD Confirmation or filter for chart patterns

J.M. Hurst is among the most important references for cyclic analysis applied to markets (dominant cycles, temporal structure of oscillations). The discipline also connects with Dow and Wyckoff — both reason in phases and sequences, though not strictly in a cyclic sense.


Core concepts

Término In Cyclepedia
Cycle
Dominant cycle
Cyclic low / high
Cyclic phase
Amplitude
Period
Harmonic / sub-cycle
Multi-timeframe
FLD
VTL (valid trend line)
Cyclic moving averages
Synchronisation
Seasonality

Tool Role
Curvilinear envelope Band around the cyclic oscillation
Nesting envelope Nested cycles across scales
Spectral / Fourier analysis Frequency decomposition
Hurst nominal cycles 5, 10, 20, 40, 80… bars
FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) Temporal projection of the cycle
Price motion model Trend + cycles + noise decomposition
Numerical filters (Ormsby) Frequency band isolation

Entries: Constant-width curvilinear envelope · Nesting envelope · Spectral analysis (Hurst Ch. 11) · Price motion model (Hurst)


Representative traders and authors

Figure Contribution
Transactional timing, envelopes, nominal cycles
W.D. Gann Time and price, angles, geometric cyclicality
Charles Dow Market phases, primary/secondary trend
Accumulation/distribution phases
Raymond Merriman Financial cyclicality
Walter Bressert Cycles and timing
Brian Millard Modern cyclic analysis
Anthony Plummer Cyclic forecasting

For newcomers — in this order:

  1. Market cycle — what a cycle is
  2. Timeframe — price and time across scales
  3. Swing high and swing low — swings and turning points
  4. Hurst nominal cycles — dominant cycle
  5. FLD — Future Line of Demarcation — FLD
  6. Timeframe + nesting — multi-timeframe
  7. Tradición Hurst — operational cyclic strategy (Hurst path)

Before Hurst fundamentals: complete at least Recorrido Bronce.


Enlaces