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J. M. Hurst

James Marsden Hurst (1924–2005): the aerospace engineer who brought spectral analysis to stock prices — the father of modern cyclic analysis, and Emiciclo's house specialty.

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"23% of all price motion is oscillatory in nature and semi-predictable." — The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing (Prentice-Hall, 1970)
Period 1924 – 2005
Background Engineering (aerospace industry)
Lens Cyclic
Works The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing (1970); JM Hurst's Cycles Course (Cyclitec, ≈1973)
The number >3,000,000 computations for Fig. IX-4 alone — on 1960s mainframes

Who he was

Portrait — J. M. Hurst

An engineer in the American aerospace industry, trained in mathematics, signal processing and systems analysis, in the 1960s Hurst turned those tools — and the computing power of mainframes, then frontier technology — on stock prices. Out came a thesis nobody had ever quantified this way: price fluctuations have an ordered spectral structure, synchronized across issues, measurable and partly predictable.

After the 1970 book and the ≈1973 course he taught seminars for a few years, then withdrew almost completely from public life: little is known of his biography, to the point that his very identity ("James Marsden Hurst") was reconstructed by the community only in recent years. Contemporary market technicians call him the father of cyclic analysis — and his legacy is a living tradition today, from David Hickson to Sentient Trader.

Contribution

  • The price-motion model — price as the sum of synchronized cyclic components plus a fundamental trend: ≈75% smooth trend, ≈23% semi-predictable cyclicality, ≈2% chance.
  • The nominal cycles — the harmonic scale of periods (18 years down to 5 days) every analysis is built on.
  • The graphical tools — nested curvilinear envelopes, valid trend lines, edge-band/mid-band timing: timing turned into objective, pre-decided signals.
  • The computational methods — half-span and full-span averages, the inverse, the Ormsby filters: signal processing lent to the chart.
  • The spectral proof — 44 years of Dow decomposed into frequency lines; the a = k/ω law by which every cycle, large or small, has the same maximum impact on price.
  • The compounding philosophy — yield is measured per unit of time: shortening the transaction interval is worth more than picking the right stock.

What today's student learns from him

  1. Fluctuations are not noise: they have measurable personality, periods and synchrony — and what is measurable can be anticipated, with statistical humility (≈90% expected, no more).
  2. Method before opinion: every decision in his system descends from a declared technique — never from a feeling. The 1968 experiment (42 trades, 90.5% successful, documented daily to impartial observers) remains a model of methodological honesty.
  3. News does not move the cycles: wars, crises and devaluations leave no imprint on the aggregate market — the best-documented anti-headline lesson in the literature.
  4. The enemy is in the mirror: with the techniques mastered, the psychological barriers remain — and Hurst mapped them as carefully as his tools.

Study path (1970 book)

The path follows the book order: operating philosophy → cyclic model → patterns verified → buy timing → managing the trade → computed methods → issue selection → trading by logic; then, for those who want to go all the way, the causes of price movement and spectral analysis (Ch. 9–11 and appendices).

J.M. HURST · STUDY PATH The book’s path: eight stages Profit Magic (1970) in reading order — each tool rests on the one before CYCLEPEDIA DIAGRAM — EMICICLO 01 Operating philosophy yield is measured against time CH. 1 02 Cyclic model price is a sum of cycles CH. 2 03 Patterns verified chart shapes explained by cycles CH. 3 04 Buy timing envelopes and valid trend lines CH. 4 05 Managing the trade keeping the profit you made CH. 5 06 Computed methods half-span, full-span, inverse CH. 6 07 Issue selection scanning, screening, the stable CH. 7 08 Trading by logic everything together, in the field CH. 8 then, to go all the way: Ch. 9–10 (why prices change) · Ch. 11 (spectral analysis) · Appendices I–VI No programming and no statistics required: paper, pencil and one stock chart.
The eight stages of the recorrido de oro, in the book's reading order (1970): each tool rests on the one before.
Tap each stage for a preview

Hub: Tradición Hurst

Start the Hurst path →

After the book (post-1970)

J.M. HURST · AFTER THE BOOK After the book: the mature method From the Cycles Course to the living tradition — the complementary path CYCLEPEDIA DIAGRAM — EMICICLO 01 Cycles Course Cyclitec, ~1973 THE COURSE 02 Phasing analysis the map of every phase METHOD 03 FLD the line displaced forward TOOL 04 Modern tradition Hickson · Sentient Trader TODAY none of this is in the 1970 book: it is the mature method, documented in a separate path Book first, course second: this path assumes the eight stages above.
The mature method: from the Cycles Course (≈1973) to the living tradition. It assumes the book's eight stages.
Tap the four stages
Resource Entry
Course overview and Hickson tradition
After the book — Hurst post-1970
Phasing analysis
Phasing analysis
FLD
FLD — Future Line of Demarcation
Eight principles (course)
The eight principles of the cyclic model

Post-1970 path →

Relacionado concepts

Enlaces

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