A quién sirve esta entrada — The heart of the post-book method: instead of building envelopes and averages, you date the lows of every cyclic component on a single diagram — and from that map flow current wavelengths, underlying trend, FLDs and targets. Readers of Ch. 8 will recognize the idea: it is the state table, grown up.
Fuente: JM Hurst's Cycles Course (Cyclitec, ≈1973); David Hickson, Sentient Trader white papers, hurstcycles.com. Not in the 1970 book — which uses envelopes and centred averages; the two approaches are complementary.
Prerrequisitos
The five principles and the nominal cycles (from the book); the eight principles (from the course) — above all synchronicity: lows align, peaks do not.
The idea
En palabras sencillas — If the lows of all cycles tend to coincide (synchronicity), then dating the lows is the analysis: knowing when each component last bottomed equals knowing the state of the whole model — and hence what to expect.
The product is a map of troughs for every active nominal cycle, written on the chart with the diamond notation: one diamond per low, taller stacks for longer cycles. From the map flow each cycle's current wavelength (with the model's allowed variation), the underlying trend as a directional filter, and the bases for FLD and VTL.
The three stages
- Entry — locate the trough of the dominant cycle on the analysed timeframe: the most evident low that still respects the nominal model. It anchors the whole map.
- Extension — from that anchor, mark the troughs of the shorter cycles, nested inside the longer ones, working forward and backward across the nominal scales.
- Completion — start from the shortest recognizable cycle and climb the hierarchy, resolving the still-open long-cycle troughs: every long low must coincide with a short low (synchronicity again).
The bridge to the book — Golden-path readers have already done phasing without knowing it: the six-component "scorecard" of Fig. IX-4 and Ch. 8's three clocks ask the same question — "where in its turn is each cycle?" — with 1970 tools. The course turns it into a complete graphical method.
Book and course, side by side
| Envelopes and averages (1970) | Phasing analysis (≈1973) | |
|---|---|---|
| Tool | Nested channels, centred averages | Dated troughs, diamonds |
| Strength | Objectivity, crisp rules | Markets with variation and skew |
| Weakness | Fragile when cyclicality dries up | Requires practice and judgement |
| Typical output | Extrapolated zones and crossings | Current wavelengths + FLD |
Limits
- It is pattern recognition: it takes chart practice; it is not mechanical like an average.
- The tradition's warning: software that only estimates the latest wavelength without full trough phasing is not enough to trade on (Hickson) — you need the history of lows, not one number.
Summary card
| Element | Value |
|---|---|
| Object | Dating each component's troughs (peaks slide: time translation) |
| Stages | Entry (anchor) → Extension (down the scales) → Completion (climb back) |
| Handwriting | |
| Outputs | Current wavelengths, underlying trend, FLD/VTL bases |
| Source | Cycles Course ≈1973 + tradition — not the 1970 book |
Enlaces
- After the book — the post-1970 path
- The diamond notation — phasing's handwriting
- The FLD — the signal that follows
- The synchronicity trick — the finest application
- The market state (Ch. 8) — the 1970 prototype