Who this entry is for — Readers who want to understand how the post-book Hurst tradition builds a coherent map of troughs instead of estimating one isolated periodicity.
Documentary disclosure — Profit Magic (1970) was checked directly for the book method: nested envelopes, displaced averages, a state table and projections. The original Cycles Course is not in the Cyclepedia corpus. Entry, Extension, Completion and diamond notation are therefore reconstructed from David Hickson / Sentient Trader's post-Hurst accounts: useful but non-independent sources that do not amount to direct verification of the course.
Prerequisites
Nominal cycles, the eight principles of the cyclic model and diamond notation.
What the analysis does
In plain language — For each scale in the model, the analyst forms a hypothesis about how much time has passed since the trough attributed to that cycle. The assignments are checked together and can be revised as new data arrive.
In Hickson's reconstruction, phasing analysis estimates the current phase of several cycles by assigning troughs to the price series. Its result is not a uniquely observable decomposition, but a hierarchical, revisable map:
- dated troughs for the scales under study;
- observed wavelengths and variation ranges;
- relationships between longer and shorter cycles;
- analytical input for FLDs, VTLs and the underlying trend in Hickson's methodology.
Diamond notation represents the assigned troughs on the chart: taller stacks indicate that the same area is also associated with longer scales. The attribution of this notation to Hurst comes from the indirect sources consulted.
The three stages
The following names and sequence are documented in Hickson's accounts of the Cycles Course; they were not checked against the original.
Entry
In plain language — Start from the visually evident troughs of the longest cycle recognisable in the data. An ambiguous point may remain unresolved.
The Entry Stage proposes the principal troughs of the dominant cycle: the longest cycle that appears to be present in the sample. Hickson specifies that if an expected trough is not evident or its location is ambiguous, the assignment is deferred until better information emerges.
Extension
In plain language — Longer-scale assignments become anchors for seeking troughs at the next shorter scale. Short-scale detail can in turn prompt corrections to longer-scale assignments.
In the Extension Stage, the analyst moves down the nominal hierarchy and proposes shorter-cycle troughs using the longer ones as anchors. The process can alternate between levels when finer resolution makes an earlier assignment more or less plausible.
Completion
In plain language — Once the shortest readable scale has been reached, move back up and address the longer-scale assignments that remain open.
In the Completion Stage, the analyst reverses direction and returns to the longer cycles that remain unresolved. “Completion” names a workflow stage; it does not guarantee that every ambiguity will be resolved. Synchronicity is a model tendency “wherever possible”, not a requirement that every long-cycle trough coincide perfectly with every short-cycle trough.
Profit Magic, the Cycles Course and Hickson's formalisation
| Documentary layer | What can be stated | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Profit Magic (1970), primary source | Envelopes, channels, displaced averages, state table and extrapolation-based projections | It does not use the Entry–Extension–Completion workflow described here |
| Cycles Course, indirect evidence | Hickson attributes hierarchical trough identification, the three stages and diamond notation to it | The original course was not consulted, so the attribution has not been verified first-hand |
| Hickson / Sentient Trader, post-Hurst | Public account of the workflow and its contemporary implementation | Same author and overlapping material: these are not independent confirmations, and software choices must not automatically be backdated to Hurst |
The connection between the book's state table and mature phasing is a Cyclepedia editorial analogy: both ask where each component stands, but the sources use different procedures.
Controls and limitations
- Declare the data, timeframe, nominal model and scales analysed.
- Preserve alternative assignments when a trough is ambiguous.
- Do not estimate one isolated cycle while ignoring adjacent scales.
- Separate hindsight analysis from decisions made in real time.
- Record when a new bar changes the phasing.
- Distinguish an analyst-proposed label from a directly observable turning point.
- Do not treat software output as independent confirmation of the model that generated it.
Typical error — Treating phasing as mechanical labelling, a unique decomposition or proof that a future trough will occur on an exact date. It is pattern recognition within a model that allows variation and revision.
Summary card
- Entry: evident troughs of the dominant cycle; ambiguous ones deferred.
- Extension: movement towards shorter scales with iterative revisions.
- Completion: movement back up to address longer scales.
- Output: a hypothetical trough map and input for subsequent tools.
Sources
- J. M. Hurst, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Prentice-Hall, 1970, ch. 4, pp. 69–85 — primary source for the book method's nested envelopes, displaced averages, state table and projections.
- David Hickson, Hurst Cycles Notes, Phasing Analysis, 2022 — post-Hurst account of the Cycles Course: definition, three stages and attribution of diamond notation.
- David Hickson / Sentient Trader, Hurst's Cyclic Analysis, originally published in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, March 2011 — earlier and substantially overlapping version of the same account; comparison of book and course and the three stages.
The two Hickson sources are not independent. The source-checked level means that this entry is consistent with the available sources and the disclosed boundary; it does not certify the contents of the original Cycles Course.