Who this entry is for — Hurst's “table of clocks”: the reference durations against which each cycle measured on a chart can be compared. Without this compass, analysts may count weeks using incompatible frames.
Source: J. M. Hurst, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Prentice-Hall, 1970 — Chapter 2, Table II-1 and The Nominality Principle (p. 33).
Verification scope — The historical tables and measurements were compared with the cited pages. Source-checked documents fidelity to the source; it does not validate the model's predictive effectiveness in present-day markets.
Prerequisites
Five principles of the cyclic model — especially what “nominal” means and why observed values vary.
Definition
In plain terms — These are not periods fixed to the day. They are reference labels (13 weeks, 26 weeks, 18 months…). On a chart, measure the distance between two lows and compare it with the rows in the table.
Nominal cycles are the reference durations introduced by the nominality principle. Variation requires the model to use common values from which each security and each period can deviate within a range. The nominal durations express commonality; the deviations express variation.
Table II-1 (Hurst 1970, p. 33)
The original table has three columns: the same duration expressed in years, months and weeks where applicable.
| Years | Months | Weeks |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | — | — |
| 9 | — | — |
| 4.5 | — | — |
| 3 | — | — |
| 1.5 | 18 | — |
| 1 | 12 | — |
| 0.75 | 9 | — |
| 0.5 * | 6 | 26 |
| 0.25 * | 3 | 13 |
| — | 1.5 | 6.5 |
| — | 0.75 | 3.25 |
| — | 0.375 | 1.625 |
* The table's original note says that the 26- and 13-week components often appear in the data as a combined effect with a nominal duration of about 18 weeks. The book measures this effect at 18.5 weeks for Warner Co. and 18.75 weeks for Standard Packaging.
How to measure: the book's exercise
In plain terms — Draw an envelope on the chart, mark the points where price contacts its bounds and count the weeks between lows. Average the selected samples to estimate the current duration; use their spread to describe the observed variation.
Chapter 2 performs the full measurement on the weekly DJIA from 1965 to 1969 (Fig. II-3). The distances between the lettered lows are:
| Span | Weeks | Span | Weeks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A–B | 23 | F–G | 22 | |
| B–C | 14 | G–H | 24 | |
| C–D | 9 | H–I | 17 | |
| D–E | 21 | I–J | 20 | |
| E–F | 12 | J–K | 23 |
There are ten samples. B–C, C–D and E–F are treated as evident variants — an expression of magnitude-duration fluctuation — and are excluded. The mean of the remaining seven is 21.428 weeks: in this DJIA sample, the current expression of the nominal 26-week component. The deviations (+2.572 / −4.428) are rounded to ±3.5, producing a near-term expectation of “21.4 ± 3.5-week cycles”. The estimate must be updated continuously because the observed duration can vary.
All the chapter's measurements
| Nominal component | Empirical measurement | Data |
|---|---|---|
| 26 weeks | 21.4 ± 3.5 (7 samples) | Weekly DJIA 1965–69, envelope |
| 18 months (78 weeks) | 67 and 75 → 71 ± 4 | Same chart, nesting up |
| 6.5 weeks | 21.4 ÷ 3 = 7.14 → refined to 6.766 (15 samples, ±0.8) | Nesting down, Figs. II-5/II-6 |
| 4.5 years (54 months) | 52 ± 1 months (4 samples) | Monthly DJIA 1949–69, logarithmic scale — the “bull-bear” cycle (Fig. II-8) |
| Combined effect of the 13- and 26-week components | 18.5 (Warner Co.) · 18.75 (Standard Packaging) | Numerical analysis and envelopes |
Example — Suppose you count 22 weeks between two lows. Relative to the empirical mean of 21.4 weeks in the DJIA sample, the difference is +0.6 weeks, so the measurement lies within the book's 17.9–24.9-week interval. The 26-week nominal is the comparison label, not the centre of that interval. If you count 19 weeks, the table's note also asks you to consider the combined effect of the 13- and 26-week components.
Operational use
- Draw the envelope on the chart.
- Count the weeks between consecutive lows; Hurst considers lows better defined than highs.
- Exclude evident variants, average the remaining observations and record the deviation.
- Compare the result with the nearest row in the table and update it after every new low.
- At least 6–7 data points per cycle are needed. If the chart does not contain them, expand the scale to daily data; if the sample is too short, contract it to monthly data.
Summary card
| If you measure… | Nominal row | Note |
|---|---|---|
| About 5–8 weeks | 6.5 weeks | The “gallop” within the trading cycle |
| About 11–15 weeks | 13 weeks | |
| About 17–20 weeks | Combined 13- and 26-week components | The approximately 18-week effect in the table note |
| About 20–28 weeks | 26 weeks | The book's reference for the trading cycle |
| About 60–80 weeks | 18 months | Measured by nesting up |
| About 4–5 years | 4.5 years | The “bull-bear” cycle; monthly data are needed |
Intraday extension (Hickson, post-book)
In the nominal model presented by David Hickson, the scale attributed to Hurst reaches the 5-day cycle. Hickson explicitly says that he added the shorter cycles and extended his own implementation down to about 3 minutes. The intraday extension is therefore a post-Hurst Hickson / Sentient Trader formalisation: it is not in the 1970 book's table and is not attributed here to the Cycles Course. See Eight principles of the cyclic model and After the book.
Sources
- J. M. Hurst, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Prentice-Hall, 1970, Chapter 2, Table II-1 p. 33 and measurements pp. 37–48.
- David Hickson, 10 Core Concepts of Hurst Cycles, concepts 5–6, pp. 5–6 — harmonic nominal model, variation and the modern extension below the daily scale.
Links
- Five principles of the cyclic model — nominality and variation
- Curvilinear envelope · Nesting envelope — the measurement tools
- Cyclic moving averages — the 10- and 30-week moving averages in relation to the nominal cycles (Chapter 3)
- Hurst tradition — chapter index