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Richard D. Wyckoff 1873—1934

P&F cause count (Wyckoff)

Wyckoff procedure for measuring cause with a horizontal Point & Figure count and estimating a target band, not a certain reversal point.

Who this entry is for — Anyone who wants to turn the width of a trading range into a reproducible estimate of potential effect. A P&F count produces an observation band: it does not say with certainty where price will arrive or reverse.


What it measures

Under Wyckoff's law of cause and effect, the horizontal count on a Point & Figure (P&F) chart represents the cause built within the range; the subsequent price movement represents a possible effect. A bar chart is still needed to delimit the range and read structure, price and volume.

The result depends on declared choices — box size, reversal setting, count line and phases counted — so it should be treated as a conditional estimate, not as an objective property of the market.

P&F count — cause and effect Horizontal range count → estimated area on the linear chart P&F count — cause and effect Horizontal range count → estimated area on the linear chart Trading range → horizontal count O X X O X X O X X O 10 columns = cause count i Estimated area P&F provides an area estimate; context and price behavior remain decisive. Cyclepedia diagram · Emiciclo
The counted width generates several price references: a band, not a point target.
Select the highlighted points to explore the detail

Documented procedure

  1. Align the charts. Use bar and P&F charts for the same instrument, trading range and horizon.
  2. Record the settings. Choose box size and reversal before counting; different settings can produce different projections.
  3. Locate the count line. In the bullish case described by the guide, identify the last point of support (LPS) on the bar chart after a SOS, then locate it on the P&F chart.
  4. Count from right to left. Start with the most conservative count and expand only by complete P&F phases tied to readable events on the bar chart.
  5. Calculate the increment. In the convention illustrated by the source: columns × box size × reversal.
  6. Build the band. For a bullish count, apply the increment to the range low, its midpoint and the count line. The three values are conservative, intermediate and upper references.
  7. Return to the bar chart. As price approaches the band, observe price and volume; the count does not replace evidence from actual behaviour.

Two different phase systems — The phases used to assemble a P&F count are not trading-range phases A–E. The guide says to add only complete P&F phases, delimited with the help of price and volume.


Worked example

Assumptions fixed in advance: 10 columns at count line 52, box size 1, three-box reversal; range low 46 and midpoint 49.

  • Increment: 10 × 1 × 3 = 30.
  • Conservative reference: 46 + 30 = 76.
  • Intermediate reference: 49 + 30 = 79.
  • Upper reference: 52 + 30 = 82.

The result is therefore a 76–82 band. This is an arithmetic example, not a forecast: a different P&F construction or range boundary can change the count.


Stepping stones and confirming counts

As a trend develops, new ranges may form at higher or lower levels. The guide treats these as possible stepping-stone confirming counts: a later count may approach the projection from the original range and provide confirmation within the method. It should not be added automatically to the first count, and it does not make trend continuation inevitable.

Because these ranges are often narrower than primary bases, the source suggests evaluating them with a smaller box size; the choice must remain explicit and internally consistent for each count.


In the historical nine buying and selling tests, test 1 asks whether the prior objective has been accomplished; test 9 compares estimated potential with an assumed initial risk. Both require P&F, but test 9 neither specifies where to place an order nor guarantees the observed ratio.


Limits and controls

Control Why it matters
Same range on bar and P&F charts Avoids mixing different causes
Declared P&F settings Makes the count reproducible
Conservative count first Separates the first estimate from later extensions
Complete P&F phases Avoids arbitrary partial additions
A band, not one number Preserves the guide's three starting references
Price-and-volume check The count estimates; observed behaviour tests whether the hypothesis remains plausible

The formula does not measure probability, time to target or certainty of reversal. Wyckoff Analytics describes P&F areas as places to “stop, look and listen”, not exact turning points.


Sources

Sources accessed 10 August 2026. Independence note: Wyckoff Analytics states that much of its article was originally written by its team for StockCharts and is reproduced with permission; the two pages are therefore substantially the same tutorial, not independent confirmations.