Didactic case — Generic structure, no real ticker. Distributive counterpart to spring in accumulation: UTAD → SOW → LPSY in Distribution Schematic #1. For definitions and variants → Wyckoff encyclopedia entries.
Source: Wyckoff Analytics; Pruden, Wyckoff Schematics (MTA 2006). Distribution with UTAD in phase C — not required in every range (Schematic #2 may proceed without UTAD).
Context
After a mature uptrend, fictional ABC enters a trading range €92–€98. Phase A: buying climax at €97 on high volume, automatic reaction to €93, secondary test at €96 on declining volume. Phase B: distributive cause built over ~8 weeks. The Composite Man distributes while weak holders buy every dip.
Operational goal: do not short the first drop — wait for the decisive demand test in phase C.
Setup
| Element | Value (example) |
|---|---|
| TR support | €92 (lower creek) |
| TR resistance | €98 (upper creek) |
| Operating phase | C — demand test |
| Expected event | UTAD above €98 with close back inside TR |
Card — Valid UTAD criteria
- Temporary break above TR resistance (phase C).
- Volume on the break often high — breakout trader euphoria.
- Close back inside TR — bull trap for weak buyers.
- Follow-up confirmation: SOW below intermediate support, then LPSY.
Sequence
- Phase B — range €92–€98; declining volume on resistance tests; no full short.
- UTAD (phase C) — intraday €99.40 (+1.4% above creek); volume +45% vs 20-day average; close €96.60 inside TR.
- UTAD test — two sessions sideways €95–€97, volume still high but no new highs → demand exhausted.
- SOW (phase D) — break €94 (intermediate creek) on volume +38%; wide spread → supply in control.
- LPSY — pullback to €95 on volume −28%; technical stop above UTAD high (€99.60).
- Phase E — markdown toward €86; partial exit at pre-accumulation support.
Outcome / Lesson
| Didactic outcome | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| UTAD | Trap for breakout traders; Composite Man distributes |
| Full short entry | After SOW + LPSY, not on the UTAD |
| Invalidation | Close above €99.60 or UTAD that holds outside TR |
Lesson — The UTAD is not a short signal: it is a test. The effort/result law applies: high volume with a breakout that fails to hold = absorption at the highs by supply. Without SOW, the range may extend or fail upward.
Operational lesson today
| Step | What Wyckoff taught | Modern parallel |
|---|---|---|
| Phase C UTAD | Demand test — not a short signal | Breakout with close inside range = filter, not automatic sell |
| SOW + LPSY | Confirm supply before full size | |
| Effort/result law | High volume, breakout that fails to hold | Divergent delta / extreme funding on crypto tops |
| Phase E | Markdown after distributive cause |
Takeaway — At market tops (euphoric equity, crypto altseason), many «breakouts» are UTAD without SOW: do not short the first spike. Accumulative counterpart → spring in accumulation.
Full encyclopedia entries
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) · Distribution phases A–E · Sign of Weakness (SOW) · Last Point of Supply (LPSY)
Links: Wyckoff tradition · Case studies index