Who this is for — Anyone running the same playbook every season. Regime is «macro weather» — adapt method, size, and expectations, not just entries.
Market regime is the dominant state in a time window: strong trend, sideways, high/low volatility, transition. Extends market conditions (Silver) with portfolio and multi-strategy edge lens.
In plain terms — The season you're trading in — trend summer vs range winter.
Combined signals
| Signal | What to watch |
|---|---|
| Direction | HH/HL vs range |
| Volatility | ATR, VIX proxy, bar range |
| Volume | Trend participation vs fake |
| Correlation | Asset convergence in stress |
No single indicator enough — top-down read + weekly review.
Operational impact
- Strategy-regime mismatch → temporary negative edge
- Regime change → revisit stops, targets, daily stop
- Stress: correlation ↑ → correlation and aggregate risk explode
Typical mistake — Fixed parameters from 2020–2021 trend backtest — 2022 regime different, account different.
Example — Mean reversion ok in H4 range; regime shifts to trend — reduce size or disable playbook page until review.
Summary card
- Question: what regime now?
- Output: active playbook / size / flat.
- Review: segment metrics by regime.
Gold path — Edge module. Index: Gold path.