Who this is for — Traders seeking «90% strategy» or discouraged at 35%. Win rate alone does not say if you profit.
Win rate is percentage of trades closed in profit out of total. Secondary diagnostic metric: read with avg win/loss and expectancy.
In plain terms — Win often with small gains and rare disasters ≠ win rarely but big — both can be profitable.
Frequency / payoff trade-off
| Profile | Win rate | Typical payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Scalping / mean reversion | High (60–80%) | Small wins, occasional large losses |
| Trend following | Low (30–45%) | Many −1R, few +5R+ |
Higher win rate target → tighter payoff — operating law, not flaw.
Correct use
- Understand compatible psychological style (many small losses vs few big wins)
- Breakeven win rate:
Loss avg / (Win avg + Loss avg) - 40% win → need avg win ≥ ~1.5× avg loss just to break even
Typical mistake — Tighten targets to raise win rate → EV collapses (premature exit).
Example — 35% win, +3R avg / −1R avg → EV = 0.35×3 − 0.65×1 = +0.4R. «Low» win rate, strong system.
Summary sheet
- Do not use: alone as KPI.
- Use with: avg win/loss, EV, profit factor.
- Review: win rate drift = changed setup or execution.
Silver path — Metrics module. Index: Silver path.