Who this is for — Anyone asking «why do I win often but little, or lose often but little?». Asymmetry describes result **shape**, not just the mean.
Asymmetry (skew) measures imbalance of the return distribution: whether long tails sit on profit or loss side. Determines psychological stress and fit with your operating profile.
In plain terms — The curve tilted left or right — who pays the bill and who cashes in.
Typical profiles
| Type | Pattern | Strategy example |
|---|---|---|
| Positive skew | Many small losses, few big wins | Trend following |
| Negative skew | Many small wins, few big losses | Mean reversion (no stop) |
| Symmetric | Balanced tails | Rare in real trading |
Positive skew + low win rate can be profitable with high payoff.
Implications
- Choose strategy aligned with streak tolerance
- Monitor with skew and fat tails
- Uncompensated negative skew → risk of ruin
Typical mistake — Watching only mean and win rate while a few negative outliers wipe the account.
Example — Trend: 35% win, positive skew, 3:1 payoff — flat months + few home runs; requires discipline on loss streaks.
Summary card
- Question: where are the tails?
- Fit: psychological profile vs skew.
- Tool: R histogram in journal.
Gold path — Edge module. Index: Gold path.