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Soybean futures (1991)

Condensed CBOT Part V case: three timeframes, failed test at 618, control price ~560 commands — long 16/9, short 19/9, fade at intermediate control 587.

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Condensed case — Short version of the full CBOT Study Guide Part V case (August–September 1991). For minus development, six critical questions, and LDB → linked methodology entries.

Source: CBOT, Market Profile Home Study Guide (1996), Part V — soybean futures Aug–Sep 1991 case. Raw: raw/patrimonio-emiciclo/studio-steidlmayer/cbot/part-05-decisioni-trading.

Context

Steidlmayer uses soybean futures to show how the six critical questions (price vs activity control, capital flow, control price across three timeframes, near-term activity, market condition) yield replicable decisions. The case shows an apparent rally can be only long-period value area rotation, not a new trend.

Three timeframes

Soybean 1991 — three timeframes Failed test at 618 → long-period control price commands Long (Feb–Jul) Balance, VA ~600 & ~571 ~560 Intermediate (Aug–Sep) Unfair low 572, high 597½ ~587 Near-term (12–27 Sep) Long 16/9, short 19/9, fade 25/9 611½→587 Rally to 618 = long-period VA rotation, not new trend CBOT Study Guide Part V · soybean Aug–Sep 1991 case Schema Cyclepedia · Emiciclo
Cyclepedia schema: long control price ~560 commands until long-period unfair levels break.
Timeframe Period Control / VA Note
Long Feb–Jul 1991 ~560; VA ~600 & ~571 Balanced market
Intermediate 22 Aug–11 Sep ~587; unfair low 572, high 597½ New unit, capital in 22 Aug
Near-term 12–27 Sep 611½ then break Operational sequence below
CBOT — intermediate soybean unit Aug–Sep 1991
CBOT Study Guide — intermediate unit (top test ~597½, control ~587). Original scan.

Sequence (12–27 September)

  1. 13/9 — 618 top test fails; value develops above 600 → 600 holds as floor in LP frame.
Market Profile soybeans 13 Sep 1991
Near-term activity 13/9/91 — 610 area test, value above 600 (CBOT p. 240).
  1. 16/9 — New beginning from mean; buying above 600 → possible long ~602½, minus development supportive.
Market Profile soybeans 16 Sep 1991 — long entry
16/9/91 — long ~602½, minus development 603½–605½ supportive (CBOT p. 242).
  1. 17/9–18/9 — Rally toward 618; resistance above, no strong confirmed buying → minus development turns down.
Market Profile soybeans 18 Sep 1991 — 618 resistance
18/9/91 — 618 test fails, no strong buying (CBOT p. 246).
  1. 19/9–20/9 — Market fails to return to 611½ (near-term control); breaks control; new down beginning (H period) → short.
Market Profile soybeans 19 Sep 1991 — short
19/9/91 — short after 618 rejection, 611½ control break (CBOT p. 248).
Market Profile soybeans 20 Sep 1991 — short hold
20/9/91 — J-shape, value below 611½, hold short (CBOT p. 252).
  1. 25/9–27/9 — Return to intermediate control price (587), tightly balanced → ready for new directional move.

Outcome / Lesson

The 618 test and pullback were, in the long-period frame, LP VA rotation — not trend breakout. By mid-October the market was below 560 testing 546: failed breakout confirmed the longest timeframe control price commands all others.

Card — Rules extracted

  • Development (price control) → fade; distribution (activity control) → go with.
  • Minus development shows flow direction, not precise timing.
  • Always cross MP chart with LDB / CTI2 when available.
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