Who this entry is for — Anyone reading distribution and minus development who wants the numeric anchor where the market «does business» until unfair high/low breaks. CBOT Study Guide Part IV–V; MML ch. 10.
Source: CBOT, Market Profile Home Study Guide (1996), Parts IV–V; Steidlmayer & Koy, Markets and Market Logic (1986). Raw:
raw/patrimonio-emiciclo/studio-steidlmayer/cbot/part-04-distribuzione,part-05-decisioni-trading.
Prerequisites
Distribution process, Operational POC and Value Area.
Definition
After a directional move, the market seeks efficiency by rotating around a mean. The control price (mean price) is the widest part of the forming value area — the level around which the unit develops while balancing trade and capital flow.
| Reference point | Role |
|---|---|
| Unit high/low | Bounds of the distributional range |
| Control price | Anchor of rotation / development |
| Developing VA high/low | Extension of the lateral «bulge» |
Steidlmayer: «The market moves from control price to control price» — propelled by money entering or exiting when perception of value changes.
Forward vs backward
| Influence | What the market does | Phase | Typical strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | Moves away from control price | Distribution | Go with the move |
| Backward | Returns to control price | Development | Fade (buy dips, sell rallies) |
A control price holds until distance (sufficient directional move) or time (prolonged stay on low-volume area becoming fair) breaks its influence.
Three timeframes
| Horizon | Question | Example (soybean 1991) |
|---|---|---|
| Long | Control price commands until LP unfair high/low breaks | ~560 (Feb–Jul) |
| Intermediate | Average of control prices of smaller units | ~587 (Aug–Sep) |
| Near-term | Parameter of current session / week | 611½ → break 19/9 |
The longest timeframe control price commands the others until the market trades beyond that horizon's unfair extremes.
Position in range third — Control price in upper third → bullish bias in the unit; lower third → bearish; centre → efficient market, ready for new beginning.
Common mistake — Confusing daily POC with control price of a multi-day unit. Control price describes the development of the whole distribution, not the session alone.