Control price

The widest part of the forming value area around which the unit rotates: the market moves from control price to control price until perception and capital flow change.

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Who this entry is for — Anyone reading distribution and minus development who wants the numeric anchor where the market «does business» until unfair high/low breaks. CBOT Study Guide Part IV–V; MML ch. 10.

Source: CBOT, Market Profile Home Study Guide (1996), Parts IV–V; Steidlmayer & Koy, Markets and Market Logic (1986). Raw: raw/patrimonio-emiciclo/studio-steidlmayer/cbot/part-04-distribuzione, part-05-decisioni-trading.


Prerequisites

Distribution process, Operational POC and Value Area.


Definition

After a directional move, the market seeks efficiency by rotating around a mean. The control price (mean price) is the widest part of the forming value area — the level around which the unit develops while balancing trade and capital flow.

Reference point Role
Unit high/low Bounds of the distributional range
Control price Anchor of rotation / development
Developing VA high/low Extension of the lateral «bulge»

Steidlmayer: «The market moves from control price to control price» — propelled by money entering or exiting when perception of value changes.


Forward vs backward

Control price — forward vs backward Distribution (trend) vs development (trading range) Control price (widest part of forming VA) Forward — distribution Forward — trend Backward — development / fade CBOT Study Guide Part IV–V · Steidlmayer Schema Cyclepedia · Emiciclo
Cyclepedia schema: forward moves away from control price (trend); backward returns to control price (fade in range).
Influence What the market does Phase Typical strategy
Forward Moves away from control price Distribution Go with the move
Backward Returns to control price Development Fade (buy dips, sell rallies)

A control price holds until distance (sufficient directional move) or time (prolonged stay on low-volume area becoming fair) breaks its influence.


Three timeframes

Horizon Question Example (soybean 1991)
Long Control price commands until LP unfair high/low breaks ~560 (Feb–Jul)
Intermediate Average of control prices of smaller units ~587 (Aug–Sep)
Near-term Parameter of current session / week 611½ → break 19/9

The longest timeframe control price commands the others until the market trades beyond that horizon's unfair extremes.

Position in range third — Control price in upper third → bullish bias in the unit; lower third → bearish; centre → efficient market, ready for new beginning.

Common mistake — Confusing daily POC with control price of a multi-day unit. Control price describes the development of the whole distribution, not the session alone.