Who this entry is for — Anyone seeing spikes on news (weather, Fed, crop reports) who wants to understand why the market can swing widely without changing long-period value. Steidlmayer & Koy, *Markets and Market Logic* (1986), ch. 6.
Source: Steidlmayer & Koy, Markets and Market Logic (1986), ch. 6. Raw:
raw/patrimonio-emiciclo/studio-steidlmayer/mml/cap-06-osservazioni-comportamentali.
Prerequisites
Definition
The dominant concern is the market worry — macro, political, weather, contract expiry — that absorbs participants in the dominant timeframe (often the short). Price neutralises it in the near term, often creating temporary excess above or below value.
| Concept | Implication |
|---|---|
| Market-imposed timeframe | Expiry, Treasury auction, USDA report → urgency |
| Short-TF-only mix | Long «buffer» missing → high volatility |
| Neutralisation | Spike ≠ new value by default |
Volatility and timeframe mix
Steidlmayer: changing the mix of participant timeframes is the only factor that changes market condition, volume, and direction. Long participants enter only at advantageous price; when absent, the market overreacts to news.
| Scenario | Operational read |
|---|---|
| News + only day traders active | Likely excess; wait for TPO acceptance |
| Long TF present | More «measured» move toward new value |
| Weather dominant concern (soy day 5, Jul 1985) | Gap open, tight VA, OT buyer still passive |
Example — soybeans, day 5 (MML ch. 10)
Gap lower open on weather/news dominant concern; little initiating sell at top, failed down range extension, flat TPO; extremely tight value area → only window in the 10-day sample where minimal-risk long was arguable (seller OT initiating fully absent).
Common mistake — Trading every gap as trend. Without reading whether other timeframe participates or stays passive, news reaction is confused with a new auction.