Análisis fundamental

Valor, macro, balances y catalizadores — el mercado como reflejo de la economía real.

En esta página

Price relative to value.

Do not confuse with Foundations under Ciclos de mercado in the menu — that is Hurst cyclic theory. Here we cover the discipline that estimates the economic value of companies, bonds, currencies and digital assets.


Para qué sirve

Fundamental analysis estimates the sustainable value of an asset by studying economics, sector, financials, earnings, growth, rates, macro liquidity and business (or protocol) quality.

What it observes What it measures When it's useful
Economic health Earnings, cash flow, debt Investment / macro position
Macro context GDP, inflation, monetary policy Asset allocation
Valuation Multiples, DCF, fair value Price/value misalignment
Catalysts Earnings, policy, events Thesis timing

The CFA distinguishes technical analysis (price/volume) from fundamental (economy, sector, company). In equities: business, earnings forecasts, valuation, thesis on why the market misprices.


Core concepts

Término In Cyclepedia
Financial statements / P&L / cash flow
Revenue, EBITDA, EPS, FCF
Valuation, DCF, multiples
P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA
Fair value / moat
Value vs growth investing
Macro: rates, inflation, GDP
Yield curve, central banks
Earnings / guidance
Tokenomics, TVL, unlocks (crypto)
Indices and benchmarks
Macro derivatives
Spot market
Implied volatility

Tool Role
DCF (discounted cash flow) Intrinsic valuation
Comparable multiples P/E, EV/EBITDA vs sector
Fundamental screeners Metric filters
Macro calendar CPI, NFP, FOMC, ECB
Quarterly reports Earnings, guidance
On-chain metrics (crypto) TVL, fees, supply

Representative investors and authors

Figure Contribution
Benjamin Graham Value investing, margin of safety
Warren Buffett Quality + long-term value
David Dodd Security Analysis with Graham
Philip Fisher Growth investing
Peter Lynch Retail stock picking
Seth Klarman Value and risk
Howard Marks Credit cycles, second-level thinking
George Soros Macro, reflexivity
Stanley Druckenmiller Operational macro
Ray Dalio All weather, macro debt
Michael Burry Value/contrarian
Aswath Damodaran Academic valuation

  1. Price · Supply and Demand — price vs value (basics)
  2. Market index — benchmarks and context
  3. Derivative · Futures — macro instruments
  4. Volatility — implied risk and sentiment
  5. Financial statements · DCF · P/E ratio — financial statement metrics and valuation
  6. Gold path — professional risk and portfolio

Market basics: Recorrido Bronce · Gold path.


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