Who this is for — Anyone using the same setup in trend and range. Market conditions are the «weather» — same setup, opposite outcomes.
Market conditions (regime) describe the current state: uptrend/downtrend, sideways, high/low volatility. They define which playbook pages are active and when to stay flat.
In plain terms — Ask «what's the weather?» first, then pick the tool — not the other way around.
Typical regimes
| Regime | Favorable setups | Avoid |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | Pullback, directional breakout | Mean reversion against trend |
| Range | Fade at boundaries | «Clean» breakouts |
| High vol | Reduced size, wider stops | Overtrading |
| Low vol | Compression breakouts | Over-ambitious targets |
Classify in pre-market routine with HTF context.
Backtest by regime
Segment results by condition — not only total P&L:
- Breakout +20R in trend, −15R in range → activate only in trend
- Specialization > «trade everything»
Typical mistake — Forcing trend setups in sideways market — negative edge masked as «discipline».
Example — NQ in H4 range → playbook only «range fade»; breakout off until structure break.
Summary card
- Question: what regime today?
- Output: allowed setups / flat.
- Validation: metrics per regime in backtest.
Silver path — Validation module. Index: Silver path.