Who this is for — Anyone who wants to stop judging a method "in absolute terms" and start evaluating it in the correct regime: trend, range, high or low volatility.
Market conditions describe the context in which you operate: directionality, volatility, liquidity, correlations, and presence of macro events. The same setup can be excellent in one regime and poor in another.
In plain terms — There is no trade that is always good: there is a trade consistent with the market "weather" at that moment.
Bronze prerequisite — Before this lesson: trading-journal, trade-result, trading-mistake. See bronze-path.
How to use them in validation
During tests, segment results by regime:
- strong trend vs sideways;
- compressed vs expanded volatility;
- liquid sessions vs thin hours;
- presence or absence of high-impact news.
This reading avoids generic conclusions and improves playbook quality.
Example — Mean-reversion setup with good overall metrics. Splitting by regime shows profit comes almost entirely from sideways markets, while in accelerating trends losses pile up. Result: mandatory regime filter.
From data to operational decision
- Classify every trade by market condition.
- Compare expectancy and drawdown for each regime.
- Disable setups out of context with clear rules.
- Revalidate periodically, because regimes change.
Card
- What it is: set of context variables that influence setup probability.
- When to use it: in backtest, review, and pre-market preparation.
- Typical mistake: applying the same setup in every phase without regime distinction.
Silver path — Module: Validation. Part of silver-path.