A quién sirve — Investors seeking margin of safety: fair value estimates what an asset should be worth — market price can diverge for years.
Fair value (intrinsic value) is the estimate of economic value for a stock, bond, commodity or token — from DCF, comparable multiples, sum-of-the-parts or asset-specific models (e.g. NAV, TVL adjusted).
In plain terms — «Right price according to fundamentals» — not a forecast of where the market goes tomorrow.
Common methods
| Approach | When |
|---|---|
| DCF | Predictable cash flows |
| Multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA) | Homogeneous peer set |
| Asset-based | Holding cos, REIT, distressed |
| Protocol metrics | Crypto/DeFi with real fees |
Price/fair value gap → long thesis (below) or short/cash (above) — needs moat and catalyst for convergence.
Limits
- Models sensitive to assumptions (WACC, growth)
- Market can misalign long (liquidity, narrative)
- Fair value is not technical support — different disciplines
- Update after earnings and macro (rates)
Error típico — Treating fair value as certain target — without bear scenario and catalyst, it is quantified opinion only.
Ejemplo — DCF fair value €45, price €38 → 18% theoretical upside; needs stable moat and FCF in line with projections.
Card
- Range: bull / base / bear.
- Trigger: earnings, guidance, macro.
- Hub: Fundamental analysis.