A quién sirve — Analysts estimating fair value from future flows rather than multiples alone. DCF is the academic standard — sensitive to every input.
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) values a company or project by discounting expected free cash flows at WACC (weighted average cost of capital), plus a terminal value (perpetuity or exit multiple). Output: equity value → per-share target price.
In plain terms — Sum of all cash the firm should generate in future, translated to today's value with a discount rate.
Key components
| Input | Role |
|---|---|
| Model engine | |
| WACC | Risk + capital structure |
| Terminal value | Beyond explicit horizon (5–10 years) |
| Net debt | From equity value to share price |
FCF ≈ operating cash flow − capex; for SaaS watch stock-based comp and light capex.
Sensitivity
- Terminal growth +0.5% can move value 15–25%
- WACC tied to yield curve and risk premium
- Bull/base/bear scenarios required — single point is marketing
Error típico — DCF with 5% perpetual growth on mature firm — inflated terminal value, unrealistic target.
Ejemplo — Year-1 FCF €100M, 8% growth for 5 years, WACC 9%, terminal 3% → enterprise value; minus net debt = equity per share.
Card
- Output: fair value per share.
- Cross-check: implied multiples vs peers.
- Hub: Fundamental analysis.