Who it's for — Traders who know trend and indicators but want a time framework: when turns are plausible, how to contextualize entries and exits. It does not replace risk management or volume analysis.
Cyclic analysis assumes prices incorporate recurring oscillations — cycles — with recognizable periods and phases, on top of trend and noise. The cyclic analyst's job is to measure, not guess: identify dominant oscillations, their current phase, and how reliably they repeat.
This entry is school-neutral. For J. M. Hurst's historical corpus (1970) and the chapter-by-chapter path → Hurst tradition.
Operational definition
A market cycle is movement that tends to repeat over time with a certain period and amplitude. Practical cyclic analysis targets four steps:
- Identify dominant cycles on an instrument or index
- Measure period (duration) and amplitude
- Determine the current phase (expansion, crest, contraction, trough)
- Estimate timing of upcoming turns — always as probability, never certainty
In simple terms — Trend says «where» the market is going; momentum says «how hard»; cyclic analysis says «when a turn is plausible» within measured oscillations.
Why it matters (and what it does not promise)
| Contribution | Limit |
|---|---|
| Time framework complementary to trend and volume | Does not predict exogenous events (war, default) |
| Contextualizes entries/exits by phase | No tick-level guarantee |
| Combines with other disciplines | Does not replace risk management |
Hurst estimates a significant share of price motion is oscillatory and semi-predictable — see Price motion model (Hurst). The rest remains slow trend, shocks, and noise.
Core vocabulary
| Concept | Role |
|---|---|
| Period / duration | How long one full lap (trough → trough) |
| Phase | Where we are in the lap (toward high or low) |
| Amplitude | How far the oscillation swings |
| Nesting | |
| Synchronicity | Troughs of different cycles aligning — higher turn probability |
Chart tools: Curvilinear envelope, Valid trend line (VTL), FLD (post-1970 development).
Relationship to other disciplines
| Discipline | Question | Hub |
|---|---|---|
| Cyclic analysis (Hurst) | When in time? | |
| Volume analysis (Wyckoff) | Who is buying/selling and how hard? | |
| Classical technical analysis | Patterns, indicators, structure |
Traditions coexist: cyclic confirmation + volume signal + logical stop is integration, not a single «system.»
Suggested study path
- Five principles of the Hurst cyclic model
- Hurst nominal cycles
- Chart pattern verification (Ch. 3)
- After the 1970 book: After the book — post-1970 Hurst (FLD, phasing)
Common mistake — Labeling cycles by eye («we're at the 40-week low») without measurement or data verification. Cyclic analysis punishes decorative labeling.
Enlaces
- Cyclic analysis (discipline)
- Cyclic theory
- Methodologies
- Case studies — applied examples