Who this is for — Forex/commodity/index futures traders: COT shows who is long/short each week — not a timing signal, but extreme positioning context.
The COT report (Commitment of Traders) is the weekly CFTC (US) publication of positioning in regulated futures and options — categories: Commercial, Non-commercial (large spec), Non-reportable.
In plain terms — «Who holds what» on ES, CL, GC, EUR… — useful to see if specs are overcrowded on one side.
Categories and reading
| Group | Who | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial | Industrial hedgers | Less contrarian |
| Non-commercial | Funds, CTAs, large spec | Extremes → reversal context |
| Non-reportable | Small retail | Noise |
Derived indicators: COT index (position vs 3-year range), net spec/commercial spread. ~3-day lag on data through Tuesday.
Limits
- US CFTC markets only — does not cover all crypto OTC
- Commercial hedging ≠ market direction
- Extremes can persist (trend)
- Pair with price, OI and sentiment
Common mistake — Automatic fade on extreme COT without price trigger — positioning is not timing.
Example — Net spec on EUR futures at 12-month high + weak euro on rate differential → crowded EUR short; squeeze if US CPI soft.
Card
- Frequency: weekly (Friday release).
- Assets: ES, NQ, CL, GC, ZB, EUR, JPY…
- Tools: CFTC, Tradingster, Barchart.