Who this is for — Anyone who wants to arrive at the market with decisions already made instead of reacting late to every candle during the position.
In plain terms — The scenario is the trade map: what you expect if the market cooperates, what you do if it deviates, and when the thesis is invalidated.
Bronze prerequisite — Before this lesson: trend, timeframe, support, stop-loss. See bronze-path.
Building useful scenarios
A robust scenario includes at least two branches: favourable path and adverse path.
On the favourable branch, define intermediate targets, stop management, and conditions to let the trade run.
On the adverse branch, clarify exit point and behaviour after the stop, without revenge.
This turns the trade-idea into an executable plan.
Scenario and operational probability
The scenario is not absolute forecast: it is a probabilistic map with actions already decided.
Rather than asking "will the market be right?", you ask "which action is planned in this branch?".
Over time, comparing expected and actual scenario improves playbook and setup filtering.
Example — Long scenario: if it breaks level X with volume, target extension to Y; if it returns below X and loses the pullback low, invalidation and immediate exit. Two paths, two decisions, zero improvisation.
Card
- What it is: operational description of possible trade developments.
- When to use it: pre-trade and post-trade review.
- Typical mistake: writing vague scenarios that do not specify concrete actions.
Silver path — Module: Building a setup. Part of silver-path.