Who this is for — In cyclic analysis: knowing where you are in the cycle matters as much as how long it lasts. Phase answers «are we near a low or a high?».
Cycle phase is the position of a wave within its cyclic period — usually in degrees (0°–360°) or as distance from the prior trough. Two cycles with the same period but different phase give opposite timing.
In plain terms — The cycle's clock: knowing it «ticks» every 20 bars is not enough — you need to know if it is 3 o'clock or 9 o'clock.
Operational definition
| Concept | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Trough (0°) | Cycle low — reference point |
| Crest (~180°) | Intermediate high on a pure sine wave |
| Relative phase | Offset vs a reference cycle |
| Current wavelength | Measured effective period, not nominal only |
Phase is estimated via phasing analysis: align troughs of nested cycles and check consistency with underlying trend.
Why it matters
- Signals (FLD, VTL) only make sense with correct phase and period
- Cyclic synchronization between higher and lower cycles confirms or invalidates the read
- Without reliable phase, the right period still gives wrong timing
Common mistake — Fixing a nominal period (e.g. 20 bars) and ignoring phase measured on the instrument — signals shift by half a cycle.
Example — 40-bar cycle: trough at bar 100 → at bar 110 we are at ~¼ period (phase ~90°), rising toward crest, not yet expecting a new low.
Card
- Measure: trough-to-trough distance + current position.
- Tools: phasing, envelope, diamond notation.
- Validate with: higher-cycle synchronicity.
Sources
- J. M. Hurst, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing (1970) - Internet Archive.
- J. M. Hurst, "Cyclic Analysis" (1974) - Reason.